UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@vandal the word lock scares me now.... thank you Petrino

also thank you, mister Jailin Turner - your wrestling is zero, your garppling is zero

You forgot to mention his IQ

buddy walked away from a knockdown, and complained when he got up instead of hunting for the finish....

@IDPC7 

I need Lewis Rebecki and Despaigne to hit 250$ parlay...
It should hit,but with my luck in betting idk anymore 

Been a while since I predicted this many finishes. Might be a slow start though. The Goff pick I actually lean Waters but riding with Goff since I made a bet on him very early and I think they both are in it.

I wouldn't refuse to train with Tabatha Ricci, from back control position. 

good luck everybody with your picks !

@miketye01 

Goodluck brotha! I think it should hit. Heres one of my favourite parlays for the card: 
Rebecki Moneyline, Torres vs Ricci over 1.5 rounds, and Mckinney fight doesnt complete 2 full rounds.
got it at (-140)

@IDPC7 

Thanks bro wish u the best!Letss get that money

banger of a card, cant wait (especially for the co-main)

great co-main.It ends in finish or it goes to judges?

Just watched the weigh ins and faceoffs. 

Buckley really faced-off with Ruziboev, counted a bunch of money in his face, and said "Inshallah you gettin put to sleep". I'm ******* dying over here. Way to early to be laughing this hard. 

@foppa420 

Someone wrote a comment Tall Khabib vs Black McGregor lmaoo

Hey guys, thought I'd mention a few betting spots I like. I usually only play parlays but I am making some single bet plays this card because there are some props I like. I thought I'd mention a few and my reasoning behind the play.

1,Veronica Hardy by decision
While JJ is a tough test I think Hardy has improved every facet of her game. She is faster, more dynamic and has really good lateral movement and very dynamic hips which will make taking her down hard. Her striking should be better with combinations of kicks and punches darting in and out and I think she will outstrike JJ. The main problem she might face is if JJ pushes her against the fence and clinches similar to what Horth did in the last round of their fight. But Hardy has been doing powerlifting and I heard she is extensively training grappling and wrestling with Dan Hardy in a specific grappling camp and I think she avoids this and gets the win. JJ is tough so I expect a decision though a late TKO could also be possible and I will sprinkle a round 2/3 finish as well.

2,Carlos Ulberg by decision
Ulberg should easily be the better striker, more technical and with a much higher power deterrent than what Jacoby had. He should be able to utilize his outside distance striking and keep Menifield away. The reason I think it goes to decision is because Ulberg is likely to be wary of Menifields power and try to keep this a distance striking match and keep moving and keep mobile rather than brawling and getting caught. Also I think he will try to avoid the wrestling and clinch threat of Menifield. I think both have somewhat questionable cardio so that should not be too much advantage either way.

3. Esteban Ribovics to finish in round 2 or 3
I really like these plays and the odds for a round 3 finish are really good. As we all know unless McKinney gets a round 1 or early round 2 finish he will fall off a cliff, and from recent interviews he definitely sounds like he is going to go for it. But I really don't think he is going to be able to KO Ribovics who has a solid chin and I really think McKinney's striking is not really that good. He will definitely get takedowns but Ribovics has good submission defense and I don't see him getting submitted either. There is a high chance he survives the onslaught and gets a late finish.

4. Hooper inside the distance/Hooper KO
Slava definitely could catch Hooper so this is a riskier bet, but I really do think the UFC has set this match up to showcase Hooper at his new division. Slava has really poor takedown defense, but while Hooper does not have fantastic takedowns, he is relentless and will keep going for it. There is no chance he tries to stand and bang with Slava and I think he will just dive for legs, pull guard, clinch and trip and basically do anything to close distance and get it to the ground. And we know that Slava gets tired when he grapples, and Hooper does not. The other factor is though Slava has an improved get up game, he has not really fought many people with good BJJ apart from Sadykhov who also is mainly a wrestler. I think the difference between having a wrestler on top of him will be very different to having an excellent control and submission grappler on top of him and when he gets taken down I do not see him being able to get up. I think the fight hits the ground at some point, and when it does I think it will be over soon after. Hooper has some very nasty ground and pound so I could see either a submission or a TKO.

Other bets I like and am playing -
Trey Waters KO (Goff is really very hittable)
Buckley KO round 2 and 3 (Ruzeboev's main win condition is round 1 and Buckley is unlikely to get caught)
Lewis KO round 1 and 2
Rebecki KO round 2/3 and Rebecki decision (I don't think he submits a high level black belt like CDF)
Despaigne KO round 1 and 2 (This is a setup fight and I am going to guess Despaigne actually has decent cardio)
Tecia Pennington by decision (High volume, good wrestling defense, should be faster than Ricci and a better striker)

Some parlay pieces I like
JJ/Hardy - Fight goes to decision
Pennington/Ricci - Fight goes to decision
Hooper/Slava - Fight does not go to decision
Waters/Goff - Fight does not go to decision
Acosta/Despaigne - Under 1.5
Rebecki over 2 takedowns
Ulberg over 30 significant strikes
Woodson over 30 significant strikes
Ulberg/Menifield fight to start round 2
Buckley over 30 significant strikes
Hooper takedown in round 1
McKinney 2 x takedowns in round 1
Pennington over 50 significant strikes
Hadley 1 x takedowns
Johnson over 50 significant strikes
Johnson/Hadley over 1.5 and 2.5
Woodson/Caceres over 1.5 and 2.5

* Edited at 05.11.2024, 9:18 AM ET *

Thanks for the downvotes, much appreciated! lol 

Damn bro u really gonna bet Hardy? 

I am. I know its a very close fight. But I really think Hardy has improved a lot. JJ could definitely win and her win condition is only by decision so I am making a decent bet on Hardy and Hardy by decision and hedging with a small bet on JJ by decision to cover my costs if I lose

Acosta will destroy Despaigne. Mark my words

You really think so? Because of cardio? Or grappling or something else

I think the closest fight to Hardy vs JJ is the JJ vs Lipski fight. It's a good fight to watch to get a feel for what could happen. I also think that though Hardy is small she will actually be the stronger and more athletic fighter.

* Edited at 05.11.2024, 9:38 AM ET *